Question

La Villa is a ski resort in the Italian Alps. Many guests visit the town, however, most of them come in the winter season because of the phenomenal skiing. A group of hotels has analyzed their demand for the last three years. Fill in the table below. Using a smoothing parameter of 0.25 and an initial forecast of 17,000, forecast demand for the first four quarters in 2015.

Year	QTR	Demand		Quarter	Season Average	Seasonal Index		Deaseasonalized demand	Smoothed Demand	Forecast	Re-seasonalized Forecast
2012	1	22,100		1	21,867.00	1.247		17720.43	?	2015Q1	?
	2	14,900		2	14,667.00	0.837		17812.27	?	2015Q2	?
	3	13,700		3	14,467.00	0.825		16604.15	?	2015Q3	?
	4	19,000		4	19,133.00	1.091		17411.15	?	2015Q4	?
2013	1	20,100		OVERALL	17,533.00			16116.77	?
	2	17,000						20322.73	?
	3	16,500						19997.70	?
	4	18,700						17136.24	?
2014	1	23,400						18762.80	?
	2	12,100						14465.00	?
	3	13,200						15998.16	?
	4	19,700						18052.61	?

Answer 1

Year	QTR	Demand		Quarter	Season Average	Seasonal Index		Deaseasonalized demand	Smoothed Demand	Forecast	Re-seasonalized Forecast
2012	1	22,100		1	21,867.00	1.247		17720.43		2015Q1
	2	14,900		2	14,667.00	0.837		17812.27		2015Q2
	3	13,700		3	14,467.00	0.825		16604.15		2015Q3
	4	19,000		4	19,133.00	1.091		17411.15		2015Q4
2013	1	20,100		OVERALL	17,533.00			16116.77
	2	17,000						20322.73
	3	16,500						19997.70
	4	18,700						17136.24
2014	1	23,400						18762.80
	2	12,100						14465.00
	3	13,200						15998.16	16,950.50
	4	19,700						18052.61	17,226.03