Question

La Villa is a ski resort in the Italian Alps. Many guests visit the town, however,...

La Villa is a ski resort in the Italian Alps. Many guests visit the town, however, most of them come in the winter season because of the phenomenal skiing. A group of hotels has analyzed their demand for the last three years. Fill in the table below. Using a smoothing parameter of 0.25 and an initial forecast of 17,000, forecast demand for the first four quarters in 2015.

Year QTR Demand Quarter Season Average Seasonal Index Deaseasonalized demand Smoothed Demand Forecast Re-seasonalized Forecast
2012 1 22,100 1 21,867.00 1.247 17720.43 ? 2015Q1 ?
2 14,900 2 14,667.00 0.837 17812.27 ? 2015Q2 ?
3 13,700 3 14,467.00 0.825 16604.15 ? 2015Q3 ?
4 19,000 4 19,133.00 1.091 17411.15 ? 2015Q4 ?
2013 1 20,100 OVERALL 17,533.00 16116.77 ?
2 17,000 20322.73 ?
3 16,500 19997.70 ?
4 18,700 17136.24 ?
2014 1 23,400 18762.80 ?
2 12,100 14465.00 ?
3 13,200 15998.16 ?
4 19,700 18052.61 ?

Homework Answers

Answer #1
Year QTR Demand Quarter Season Average Seasonal Index Deaseasonalized demand Smoothed Demand Forecast Re-seasonalized Forecast
2012 1 22,100 1 21,867.00 1.247 17720.43 2015Q1
2 14,900 2 14,667.00 0.837 17812.27 2015Q2
3 13,700 3 14,467.00 0.825 16604.15 2015Q3
4 19,000 4 19,133.00 1.091 17411.15 2015Q4
2013 1 20,100 OVERALL 17,533.00 16116.77
2 17,000 20322.73
3 16,500 19997.70
4 18,700 17136.24
2014 1 23,400 18762.80
2 12,100 14465.00
3 13,200 15998.16 16,950.50
4 19,700 18052.61 17,226.03
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